1 post from August 2009

Union of Concerned Scientists members have the opportunity to participate in conference calls and webinars on topical issues.  A webinar on July 22nd presented Climate 2030: A National Blueprint for a Clean Energy Economy which "shows how the U.S. can achieve deep cuts in global warming emissions while saving consumers and businesses money by implementing a comprehensive suite of climate, energy, and transportation policies."  The analysis is the result of a two-year study involving a multi-disciplinary team at UCS combined with a rigorous external peer review process.  The charts, an audio recording of the presentation and an executive summary can be downloaded from http://www.ucsusa.org/about/ucs-climate-2030-blueprint.html.

The presentation showed how emissions reductions in various sectors between now and 2030 will allow the USA to reach its 2050 emissions reduction goal of 80% from 2005 levels.  The bulk of the reductions (57%) will occur in the electricity sector (20% from residential, 23% from commercial and 14% from industrial) with transportation contributing another 16%.  A key finding was that consumers and businesses across the USA would save money in spite of higher costs due to the carbon cap-and-trade legislation, due to reduced energy usage through efficiency.  

The study suggested that a significant reduction in carbon emissions from electricity could be achieved by 2030 through efficiency savings, combined with a shift from coal to wind, solar, biomass and geothermal.  Combined heat and power would increase while the contribution from hydro and nuclear power would stay roughly flat.  A similar trend was seen for transportation, with avoided emissions the largest contribution followed by lower emissions from light-duty vehicles.  Alternative fuels would increase four-fold, with the largest growth in cellulosic fuels, early growth in corn-based ethanol followed by a decline after 2022, small growth in electricity or hydrogen, and a slight decline in natural gas.  Although the contribution of electricity or hydrogen-powered vehicles appears small, it still represents 20% penetration in the light-duty market by 2030.

The analysis was based on a comprehensive and coordinated set of policies affecting:

• carbon emissions directly through cap-and-trade
• industry and building standards
• a shift to renewable energy generation
• increased efficiency in the transportation sector, smart-growth policies and per-mile fees

The study clearly emphasised the importance of efficiency.  When asked how these efficiencies would be achieved, the presenter referenced state and federal policies such as efficiency standards and utility energy reduction goals.  The effect of these policies might have on behaviour is less clear.  As Nick Lansing points out in What Cap and Trade Will Cost You, reducing the pain of energy hikes may help get the legislation passed but lessen the motivation to reduce consumption.  It may even encourage additional consumption in other areas.  Until recently, increased efficiency of vehicles has been overshadowed by ever-increasing vehicle size and weight.  It was only when gasoline prices jumped that larger vehicle sales declined.